Western technology and finance dey help Ukraine carry out hundreds of long-range strikes inside Russia.
Even though Nato allies still refuse to give Ukraine permission to use Western-supplied munitions to do so – mostly becos of fears of escalation.
Ukraine don dey step up dia long-range strikes inside Russia ova di past few months, dem don launch scores of drones simultaneously for strategic targets several times a week.
Di targets include air force bases, oil and ammunition depots and command centres.
Ukrainian companies now don dey produce hundreds of armed one-way attack drones a month, for a fraction of di cost wey e dey take to produce a similar drone for di West.
One company tell BBC say dis dey affect Russia war economy.
Dose wey dey involved for dis mission don brief BBC. Dem include one of Ukraine largest one-way attack drone manufacturers, as well as one big data company wey don help develop software for Ukraine to carry out dis strikes.
Francisco Serra-Martins say di strategy already dey create huge wahala for Moscow. Im believe say wit di extra investment, e go turn di tide of di war for Ukraine favour.
Eighteen months ago, di company wey him co-found wit pesin, Terminal Autonomy, bin no even dey exist. Now e dey produce more dan a hundred AQ400 Scythe long-range drones a month, wit a range of 750km (465 miles). Di company also dey make hundreds of shorter range AQ100 Bayonet drones a month, wey fit fly a few hundred kilometres.
Di drones na wood dem take make am and dem dey assemble for one former furniture factories for Ukraine.
Oga Serra-Martins, a former Australian Army Royal Engineer, set up di company wit im Ukrainian co-founder, dem get backing from US finance. Na one of at least three companies wey now dey produce drones for Ukraine at scale.
Im describe im drones as “basically flying furniture – we dey assemble am like Ikea”.
E dey take about an hour to build di fuselage and half dat time to put di brains inside am – di electronics, motor and explosives.
Di company Bayonet drone cost a few thousand dollars. Compared to a Russian air defence missile wey dem dey use to shoot am down wey fit cost more dan $1m.
No be only cheap drones dey make di difference.
Palantir, one large US data analysis company, na one of di first Western tech companies to aid Ukraine war effort. Dem bin start by providing software to improve di speed and accuracy of dia artillery strikes. Now e dey give Ukraine new tools to plan dia long-range drone strikes.
British engineers from Palantir, wey dey work wit dia Ukrainian counterparts, design a programme to generate and map di best ways to reach dia target. Palantir make am clear say dem no dey involved for di missions, but dem don help train more dan 1,000 Ukrainians how to use dia software.
Dem show BBC how e dey work in principle. Wit di use streams of data, e fit map Russia air defences, radar and electronic jammers. Di end product look similar to a topographical chart.
Di tighter di contours, di heavier di air defences. Di locations already dey identified by Ukraine – dem use commercial satellite imagery and signals intelligence.
Louis Mosley of Palantir say di programme dey help Ukraine to skirt around Russia electronic warfare and air defence systems to reach dia target.
“Understanding and visualising wetin e look like across di entire battle space dey really critical to optimising di missions,” e tok.
Di execution of di long-range drone strikes dey co-ordinated by Ukraine intelligence agencies, wey dey work in secrecy. Oda sources don tell BBC about some of di detail.
Dem fit fire many drone for any one mission – as many as 60 for one target.
Na for night dem dey carry out most of di attacks. Most go dey shot down. As few as 10% fit reach di target. Dem dey even shoot some drones down along di way by friendly fire – Ukraine own air defences.
Ukraine don get to work out ways to counter Russian electronic jamming. Terminal Autonomy Scythe drone dey use visual positioning – wey go navigate dia course and examine di terrain by Artificial Intelligence. No pilot dey involved.
Palantir software go don already map di best routes. Oga Serra-Martins say flying a lot of drones dey veri key to overwhelming and exhausting Russia air defences. Na so e also be to make di drones cheaper dan di missiles wey dey try to shoot dem down, or di targets wey dem try to hit.
Prof Justin Bronk of di Royal United Services Institute say Ukraine long-range drone attacks dey create dilemmas for Moscow. Although Russia get a lot of air defences, but still e no fit protect evritin.
Prof Bronk say Ukraine long-range strike show ordinary Russians say “di state no fit defend dem fully and add say Russia dey vulnerable”.
Dem don spot Ukrainian drones more dan 1,000km (620 miles) inside Russia. Dem shoot dem down ova Moscow.
But di focus na on military sites. Di map below highlight just a handful of di dozen targets hit ova di past few months. Dem include five Russian airbases.
Prof Justin Bronk say targeting Russian airbases so far na di only effective way Ukraine fit respond to Russia glide bombs.
E don force Russia to move aircraft to bases wey dey far away and reduce di frequency of dia attacks. Satellite imagery shows how Ukrainian drones successfully damage hangars for dia Marynovka airbase.
Ukraine clearly believe say dem fit do even more wit di help of Western-made long-range weapons. But so far, allies don reject Kyiv pleas.
Fear still dey, especially for Washington and Berlin, sake of say e fit drag di West further inside di conflict. But dat neva stop Western companies and finance from helping Ukraine.
Ukraine still largely need to rely on dia home-grown efforts, dem dey convinced say taking di war to Russia na key to winning di war.
Francisco Serra-Martins also believe say Western manufacturers still dey “woefully unprepared” to fight high-intensity warfare – producing far fewer long-range weapons for a much higher cost. Im say wetin Ukraine really need now “na plenty good systems”.
BBC bin tok to one Ukrainian company wey don already develop one new cruise missile, at least 10 times cheaper dan di British-made Storm Shadow missile.
Despite di West misgivings, Ukraine dey plan to step up dia attacks on Russia. Oga Serra-Martins say: “Wetin you dey see now na notin compared to wetin you go see by di end of di year.”
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