For January 2015, Abdullah, di 90-year-old king of Saudi Arabia, dey die for hospital. Im half-brother, Salman, go soon become king – and Salman favourite son, Mohammed bin Salman, dey prepare for power.
Di prince, wey pipo sabi by im initials MBS and wey be just 29 years old den, bin get big plans for im kingdom, di biggest plans for di history of di kingdom; but e fear say plotters within im own Saudi royal family fit eventually move against am and spoil im plans. So for midnight, one evening for dat month, e summon one senior security official come di palace, wit determination to win im loyalty.
E tell di official, Saad al-Jabri, to leave im mobile phone on top one table outside. MBS too do di same. Di two men now dey alone.
Di young prince fear palace spies sotay e comot di socket from di wall, as e disconnect di only landline telephone.
According to Jabri, MBS come tok about how e go wake im kingdom up from dia deep slumber, and allow am take its rightful place on di global stage. E say im go do dis by selling a stake for di state oil producer Aramco, wey be di world most profitable company, gradually, e go make im kingdom economy to stop dey depend on oil.
E go invest billions in Silicon Valley tech start-ups wey include di taxi firm, Uber. Den, by giving Saudi women di freedom to join di workforce, e go create six million new jobs.
Di ideas surprise Jabri and e ask di prince about di extent of im ambition. “You don hear of Alexander di Great?” na di prince simple reply.
MBS bin end di conversation for dia. Di midnight meeting wey bin dey scheduled to last half-an-hour bin go on for three hours. Jabri comot di room to find several missed calls on im mobile from government colleagues wey bin dey worried about im long disappearance.
For di past year, BBC documentary team bin follow both Saudi friends and opponents of MBS, plus senior Western spies and diplomats tok.
Saudi government bin get opportunity to respond to di claims wey BBC films and di ones for dis article make. But dem choose not to respond.
Saad al-Jabri bin dey very high up for di Saudi security apparatus wey make am be friends wit di heads of di CIA and MI6.
While di Saudi government bin call Jabri yeye former official, e also be di most-well informed Saudi rebel wey don dare to speak about how di crown prince take dey rule Saudi Arabia – and di rare interview e give us, na ogbonge something.
By gaining access to many pipo wey sabi di prince personally, BBC shed new light on di events wey make MBS notorious – wey include di 2018 murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi plus di launch of one devastating war for Yemen.
Wit im father increasingly weakness, di 38-year-old MBS now, na di de facto leader in charge of di birthplace of Islam and di world biggest exporter of oil.
E don begin carry out many of di ground-breaking plans e bin describe give Saad al-Jabri – e also dey accused of human rights violations wey include di suppression of free speech, widespread use of di death penalty and jailing of women rights activists.
How e take start
Di first king of Saudi Arabia bin father at least 42 sons, wey include MBS father, Salman.
Dem bin don pass di crown down according to tradition between dis sons.
Na wen two of di sons suddenly die for 2011 and 2012, dem elevate Salman put for di line of succession.
Western spy agencies bin make am dia business to study di Saudi equivalent of Kremlinology – as dem work out who go be di next king.
For dis stage, MBS bin dey so young and unknown, e no even dey on dia radar.
“Nobody really know am as e dey grow,” Sir John Sawers, chief of MI6 tok, until 2014. “E no dey earmarked to rise to power.”
Di crown prince bin also grow up for palace wey bad behaviour get few, if any, consequences; and dat fit help explain im notorious habit as e no dey think through di impact of im decisions until e don already make dem.
MBS bin first enter limelight for Riyadh for im late teens, wen e dey nicknamed “Abu Rasasa” or “Father of di Bullet”, afta e allegedly send bullet give one judge wey bin rule against am for inside one property clash.
“E get one kain ruthlessness,” Sir John Sawers observe. “E no like make pipo cross am. But dat also mean say e don dey able to drive through changes wey no oda Saudi leader don fit to do.”
Among di most welcome changes, di former MI6 chief say, na say e cut off Saudi funding to overseas mosques and religious schools wey become breeding grounds for Islamist jihadism – wey bin dey of huge benefit to di safety of di West.
MBS mother, Fahda, na Bedouin tribeswoman and pipo see her as di favourite of im father four wives.
Western diplomats believe say di king bin suffer for many years from one slow-onset form of vascular dementia; and MBS na di son e turn to for help.
Several diplomats bin tell BBC dia meetings wit MBS and im father. Di prince go write notes on one iPad, come send am to im father iPad, as way of prompting wetin e go tok next.
“I bin wonder weda MBS bin dey type out im lines for am,” Lord Kim Darroch, National Security Adviser to David Cameron wen e be British Prime minister recall.
E show say di prince no fit wait for im father to become king and for 2014, and report say e bin suggest di killing of di den monarch – Abdullah, im uncle – wit a poisoned ring, wey e obtain from Russia.
“I no know for sure if e just dey brag, but we bin take am seriously,” Jabri tok.
Di former senior security official say e bin see one secretly recorded surveillance video wia MBS bin dey tok about di idea. “Dem ban am from court, from shaking hands wit di king, for a considerable amount of time.”
Di king later die of natural causes, wey give room for im brother, Salman, to assume di throne for 2015. MBS dey appointed Defence Minister and no waste time to go to war.
War in Yemen
Two months later, di prince bin lead one Gulf coalition into war against di Houthi movement, wey seize control of much of western Yemen and wey e see as proxy of Saudi Arabia regional rival Iran.
Di war bin trigger humanitarian disaster, wey see millions on di edge of famine.
“No be clever decision,” Sir John Jenkins, wey be British ambassador just before di war start tok. “One senior American military commander bin tell me say dem bin give 12 hours notice of di campaign, wey dey unheard of.”
Di military campaign help turn di prince wey pipo no too sabi into one Saudi national hero. However, dat na also di first of wetin even im friends believe na one of im several major mistakes.
One recurring pattern of behaviour dey develop: MBS tendency to dump di traditionally slow and collegiate system of Saudi decision-making, as e prefer to act unpredictably or upon impulse; e also refuse to bow to di US, or make pipo treat am as di head of a backward client state.
Jabri go much further, as e accuse MBS say e forge im father, di king signature on a royal decree committing ground troops.
Jabri say e discuss di Yemen war for di White House before e start; and Susan Rice, President Obama National Security Advisor, bin warn am say US go only support air campaign.
However, Jabri claim say MBS bin dey so determined to press ahead for Yemen, and e ignore di Americans.
“We bin surprise say royal decree dey wey allow di ground interventions,” Jabri say. “E forge di signature of im papa for dat royal decree. Di king mental capacity dey deteriorate.”
Jabri say im source for dis allegation dey “credible, reliable” and e dey linked to di Ministry of Interior wia e be chief of staff.
Jabri recall as di CIA station chief for Riyadh bin dey tell am how e take vex say MBS ignore di Americans, and add say di invasion of Yemen no suppose happun.
Di former MI6 chief Sir John Sawers tok say while im no know if MBS forge di documents, “e dey clear say dis na MBS decision to intervene militarily for Yemen. No be im father decision, although e carry im papa along.”
We discover say MBS see imself as an outsider from di very beginning – a young man wey get much to prove and wey no dey obey anybody rules apart from im own.
Kirsten Fontenrose, wey serve on President Donald Trump National Security Council, tok say wen she read CIA in-house psychological profile of di prince, she feel say e miss di point.
“No prototypes dey to base am on,” she tok. “E get unlimited resources. Nobody don ever tell am ‘no’. E be di first young leader wey go reflect generation wey most of us in government dey too old to understand.”
E make im own rules
MBS bin buy one popular famous painting for 2017, wey tell us much about how e dey think, and im willingness to be a risk-taker, pesin wey no dey fear to go out of step wit di religiously conservative society wey e dey govern. And above all, pesin wey dey determined to outplay di West in visible display of power.
For 2017, one Saudi prince wey reportedly dey act for MBS bin spend $450m (£350m) on di Salvator Mundi, wey remain di world most expensive work of art ever sold.
Di portrait, wey tori claim say na Leonardo da Vinci paint am, show Jesus Christ as master of Heaven and Earth, di saviour of di world. For almost seven years, ever since di auction, e don completely disappear.
Bernard Haykel, one friend of di crown prince and Professor of Near Eastern Studies for Princeton University, say despite rumours say di painting dey hang for di prince yacht or palace, di painting actually dey for one storage for Geneva and MBS get plan to hang am for one museum for di Saudi capital wey e neva build.
“I wan build one very large museum for Riyadh,” Haykel quote MBS. “And I want one anchor object wey go attract pipo, just like di Mona Lisa dey do.”
Similarly, im plans for sport show pesin wey dey very ambitious and pesin wey no dey fear to scata status quo.
Saudi Arabia incredible spending spree on world-class sport – na di only kontri wey bid to host di FIFA World Cup for 2034, and don make multimillion-dollar investments in staging tournaments for tennis and golf.
But wetin BBC discover na say, e be leader wey care less about wetin di West tink about am, e go do whatever e want in di name of making imself and Saudi Arabia great.
“MBS dey interested in building im own power as a leader,” Sir John Sawers, di former Chief of MI6, wey don meet am tok. “And di only way e fit do am, na by building im kontri power. Dat na wetin dey drive am.”
Jabri 40-year career as Saudi official no survive MBS consolidation of power.
Chief of staff to di former Crown Prince Muhammed bin Nayef, run comot di kingdom as MBS take ova, afta one foreign intelligence service codedly tell am say e fit dey in danger. But Jabri say MBS bin text am out of di blue, and offer am im old job back.
“Na bait – and I no bite,” Jabri tok, e dey convinced say dem go torture, imprison or kill am if e return.
As e be, dem arrest im teenage children, Omar and Sarah, and later send dem go jail for money laundering and on top accuse say dem dey try to escape – charges wey dem deny.
Di United Nations Working Group on Arbitrary Detention bin call for dia release.
“E plan for my assassination,” Jabri tok. “E no go rest until e see say I don die, I no get any doubt about dat.”
Saudi officials bin issue Interpol notices for Jabri extradition from Canada, without success.
Dem claim say e dey wanted for corruption wey involve billions of dollars during im time for di interior ministry. However, dem give am di rank of major-general and di CIA and MI6 hail am as e help dem stop al-Qaeda terrorist attacks.
Khashoggi killing
Di killing of Jamal Khashoggi for di Saudi consulate for Istanbul for 2018 link MBS in ways wey dey very hard to deny.
Di 15-strong hit squad bin dey travel on diplomatic passports and e include plenty MBS personal bodyguards.
Nobody ever find Khashoggi body e dey believed say dem hack am to pieces wit a bone saw.
Professor Haykel exchange WhatsApp messages wit MBS not long afta di murder. “I bin dey ask, ‘how dis fit happun?’,” Haykel recall. “I think e dey for deep shock. E no know say di reaction to dis killing go dey deep.”
Dennis Ross bin meet MBS shortly afterwards. “E say im no do am and dat na colossal blunder,” Ross tok. “I certainly wan believe am, because I no fit believe say e fit authorise something [like] dat.”
MBS don always deny knowledge of di plot, although for 2019, e bin tok say im take “responsibility” becos di crime bin happun on im watch.
One declassified US intelligence report wey dem release for February 2021 declare say e get hand for di killing of Khashoggi.
BBC ask those wey sabi MBS personally weda e don learn from im mistakes; or weda afta e survive di Khashoggi affair, e don make am bolder.
“E learn lessons di hard way,” Professor Haykel tok, e say MBS no like as pipo dey use di case judge im and im kontri, but a killing like Khashoggi own no go ever happun again.
Sir John Sawers carefully agree say di murder na turning point. “I think e don learn some lessons. Di personality, though, na di same.”
Im father, King Salman, now na 88 years old. Wen e die, MBS fit rule Saudi Arabia for di next 50 years.
However, recently, e tok say im fear say dem fit assassinate am, possibly as consequence of im attempts to normalise Saudi-Israeli ties.
“I think say plenty pipo dey wey wan kill am,” Professor Haykel tok, “and e know am.”
Eternal vigilance na wetin dey keep a man like MBS safe. Na wetin Saad al-Jabri observe for di beginning of di prince rise to power, wen e pull di telephone socket comot from di wall before e follow am tok for im palace.
MBS still na man on a mission to modernise im kontri, for ways im predecessors no go ever dare.
But e also no be di first autocrat wey run di risk of being so ruthless wey nobody around am dare stop from making more mistakes.
Jonathan Rugman na consultant producer on The Kingdom: The world’s most powerful prince
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