Strong indications dey say within days, US and UK go lift dia restrictions on Ukraine to fit use long-range missiles against targets inside Russia.
Ukraine don dey beg for dis for weeks. But why di West dey reluctant and which difference these missiles go make to di war?
Wetin be Storm Shadow?
Storm Shadow na Anglo-French cruise missile wey get maximum range of around 250km (155 miles). Di French dey call am Scalp.
Dem dey launch am from aircraft, kon fly at close to di speed of sound, e go touch ground small, bifor e drop down and detonate im high explosive warhead.
Dem consider Storm Shadow as di perfect weapon dem fit use penetrate hardened bunkers and ammunition stores, like di ones wey Russia dey use for dia war against Ukraine.
But each missile dey cost nearly US$1 million (£767,000), so dem dey launch am as part of one carefully planned flurry of much cheaper drones, wey dem dey send ahead to confuse and suffer di enemy air defences, just as Russia do to Ukraine.
Britain and France don already send dis missiles give Ukraine – but wit di condition say Kyiv fit only fire dem at targets for inside dia own borders.
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Dem dey use am wit great effect, as dem use am hit Russia Black Sea naval headquarters for Sevastopol and e make di whole of Crimea no dey safe for di Russian navy.
Justin Crump, one military analyst, former British Army officer and CEO of di Sibylline consultancy, tok say, Storm Shadow na highly effective weapon for Ukraine, wey dey strike wit no mistake against well protected targets for occupied territory.
“No be surprise say Kyiv don lobby make dem fit use am inside Russia, particularly to target airfields wey dem dey use mount di glide bomb attacks wey recently don delay Ukrainian front-line efforts,” e tok.
Why Ukraine want am now?
Ukraine cities and front lines dey under daily attack from Russia.
Russian aircraft wey dey far from Russia don launch many of di missiles and glide bombs wey don cause devastation on military positions, blocks of flats and hospitals.
Kyiv complain say as dem no dey allowed to hit di bases wia dem dey launch dis attacks from, na di same as tying one of dia hand for back and tell dem to fight war.
For di Globsec security wey I attend for Prague dis month, dem even suggest say Russian military airbases dey beta protected pass Ukrainian civilians wey dey get hit sake of di restrictions.
Ukraine get dia own innovative and effective long-range drone programme.
At times, dis drone strikes don catch di Russians off guard and e reach hundreds of kilometres inside Russia.
But na only small payload dem fit carry and dem dey detect and capture most of dem.
Kyiv argue say in order to push back di Russian air strikes, dem need long-range missiles, wey include Storm Shadow and comparable systems including American Atacms, wey even get greater range of 300km.
Why di West dey hold on?
For one word: escalation.
Washington dey worry say although so far all of President Vladimir Putin threatened red lines don turn out to be empty bluffs, allowing Ukraine to hit targets deep inside Russia wit Western-supplied missiles fit just push am ova di edge and make am retaliate.
Di fear for White House na say hardliners for Kremlin fit insist say make di retaliation take di form of attacking transit points for missiles on dia way to Ukraine, like di airbase for Poland.
If dat one bin happun, dem fit invoke Nato Article 5, wey mean say di alliance fit dey at war wit Russia.
Ever since Russia full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, di White House aim na to give Kyiv as much support as possible witout dem getting dragged into direct conflict wit Moscow.
What difference Storm Shadow fit make?
Some, but e fit be case of too little too late. Kyiv bin don dey ask to use long-range Western missiles inside Russia for so long now wey Moscow don already take precautions if di restrictions dey lifted.
Russia don move dia bombers, missiles and some of di infrastructure wey dey maintain dem go back, away from di border wit Ukraine, wia di range of di Storm Shadow no go fit touch dem.
Yet Justin Crump of Sibylline say, while Russian air defence don advance to counter di threat of Storm Shadow within Ukraine, di work go dey much harder sake of di scope of Moscow territory wey fit now dey exposed to attack.
“Dis go make military logistics, command and control, and air support harder to deliver, and even if Russian aircraft pull back further from Ukraine frontiers to avoid di missile threat, dem go still suffer increase for di time and costs per sortie to di front line.”
Matthew Savill, director of military science for Rusi think tank, believe say lifting restrictions go offer Ukraine two main benefits.
Firstly, e fit “unlock” anoda system, di Atacms.
Secondly, e go pose a dilemma for Russia as to wia to position dose precious air defences, somtin e tok say fit make am easier for Ukraine drones to get through.
Ultimately though, Savill tok say, e no dey likely say Storm Shadow go change di situation of di tins.
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