US election: Who dey lead – Harris or Trump?

One digitally created collage wey show Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Kamala Harris dey left, wearing a suit with a white blouse and waving her hand. Donald Trump dey right, wearing a suit wit a white shirt and a tie.

Voters for di US dey go to di polls on 5 November to elect dia next president.

Di election dey initially like rematch of 2020 but e change for July wen President Joe Biden end im campaign and endorse Vice-President Kamala Harris.

Di big question now na if di result go mean a second Donald Trump term or America first woman president?

As election day dey come closer, we go dey keep track of di polls and see which kain effect di campaign get for di race to di White House.

Wetin di polls tok about who win di debate?

Just ova 67 million pipo watch Harris and Trump go head to head for di debate for Pennsylvania on 10 September.

But wetin di polls tell us about who go win?

Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,400 registered voters wey hear at least sometin about di debate find dat 53 per cent pick Harris while 24 per cent say Trump win.

E also suggest say Harris get a lead of five points ova her rival nationally, 47 per cent to 42 per cent – up from 45 per cent to 41 per cent for August.

Anoda YouGov poll of 1,400 adults for di US get similar conclusions of dose wey don watch di debate.

Na 55 percent say Harris win and 25 per cent choose Trump. Even so, e find say no change dey for voting intentions, wit Harris having di same lead of 46 per cent to 45 per cent as bifor di debate.

Harris no get anytin to stop her for di Morning Consult poll of 3,300 likely voters wey put her lead for 50 per cent to 45 per cent – even though Trump don drop by one point from 46 per cent for dia poll bifor di debate.

Di data wey we get at di moment suggest say even though a majority of dose wey watch di debate feel say Harris come out on top wit her performance, e fit no mean say more votes go come for her becos so many Americans don make up dia minds alreadi on who dem go support.

Who dey lead national polls?

For di months leading up to Biden decision to drop out of di race, polls dey show say e dey follow former president Trump.

But di race dey tight afta Harris hit di campaign trail and she develop a small lead ova her rival for average of national polls wey she don maintain since.

Check di latest national polling averages for di two candidates below:

For di poll tracker chart below, di trend lines show how dose average don change since Harris enta di race.

While dis national polls be useful guide as to how popular candidate fit be across di kontri countr, dem fit no necessarily be accurate way to predict di result of di election.

Dat na becos di US dey use electoral college system wia each state get a number of votes roughly in line wit di size of im population.

A total of 538 electoral college votes dey up for grabs, so one candidate need to hit 270 to win.

Di US get 50 states but becos say most of dem dey always vote for di same party, e get small cases wia both candidates stand a chance to win.

Dis na di places wia dem go win or lose di election and dem dey known as battleground states.

Who dey win for battleground states?

Right now, di polls dey veri tight for di seven battleground states, wey make am hard to know who dey really lead di race.

Few state polls na im dey dan national polls so we get less data to work wit and everi poll get margin of error wey mean say di numbers fit dey high higher or lower.

As e stand, recent polls suggest say e get less dan one percentage point wey dey separate di two candidates for several states.

Dis include Pennsylvania, wey dey key as e get di highest number of electoral votes on offer and e make am easier for di winner to reach di 270 votes wey dey needed.

Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin na Democratic strongholds bifor Trump turn am red for im path to win di presidency for 2016.

Biden retake dem for 2020 and if Harris fit do di same dis year, den she go dey on course to win di election.

For di sign of how di race don change since Harris become di Democratic nominee, on di day Joe Biden comot for di race e bin dey behind Trump by about five percentage points average for dis seven battleground states.

We fit trust di polls?

For di moment, di polls suggest say Kamala Harris and Donald Trump dey within a couple of percentage points of each oda both nationally and for battleground states.

Wen di race dey close, e dey veri hard to predict winners.

Polls no dey rate support for Trump for both 2016 and 2020. Polling companies go try to fix dat problem, including how to make dia results show di make-up of di voting population.

Dose adjustments dey difficult to get right and pollsters still get to make educated guesses about oda factors like who go actually turn up to vote on 5 November.

Written and produced by Mike Hills and Libby Rogers. Design by Joy Roxas.