Di seven swing state wey go decide 2024 US presidential election

Map of di United States wit Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin mark

BBC

About 240 million pipo dey eligible to vote for dis year US election, but only relatively small number of dem dey likely to settle di question of who go become di next president.

Expert believe say na only handful of states Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, of di Democrats or Republicans respectively, fit possibly win.

Seven of dem – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – dey hold di key to di White House.

Now, in di final months of di election, both campaigns fit win ova undecided voters in dis states.

Arizona

Di Democrats gain di presidency in 2020 wit di support of di Grand Canyon State, wey narrowly vote to back dia party candidate for di first time since di 1990s.

Dis state get border wit Mexico for hundreds of miles, and don become focal point of di nation immigration debate.

Border crossing don fall in recent months from record, e don make di matta reach di top of voters concerns.

Trump don repeatedly attack Ms Harris record on immigration, becos President Joe Biden bin give her di role to ease di border crisis.

E don also vow to carry out “di largest deportation operation” in US history if im regains di presidency.

Arizona don also express dia bitterness ova abortion access, afta state Republicans attempt to reinstate 160-year-old near-total ban on removing belle, but dem dey frustrated.

Di issue don become explosive nationwide since 2022 wen di US Supreme Court ovaturn landmark ruling wey give women di constitutional right to abortion.

Source: US Customs and Border Protection Agency (data to July 2024)
Note: Betwin 2020 and 2023, figures include "expulsions" on public health ground starting during di Covid-19 pandemic.

BBC

Georgia

Our list of swing states closely match di list of places wia Trump-backed Republican officials try to stop Biden win in di 2020 election.

For Georgia Fulton County, alleged election interference don land Trump inside one of im four criminal prosecutions ( dem don convict Trump in one case, while di remaining one dey ongoing).

Im and 18 odas dey accuse of conspiring to ovaturn narrow defeat to Biden in di state. Trump deny any wrongdoing, and di case be like say e no go hold court bifor di election.

Third of Georgia population na African-American, one of di kontri largest proportions of black residents, and di believe be say di demography dey instrumental in Biden flipping di state in 2020.

Some disappointment wit Biden report dey among America black voters, but di Harris campaign hope to animate dis constituency.

A courtroom sketch of Donald Trump

Reuters
Trump don find himself in four criminal cases – including one for Georgia

Michigan

Di Great Lakes state don pick di winning presidential candidate in di last two elections. Despite backing Biden in 2020, e don become symbolic of nationwide criticism ova di president support for Israel during di kontri war in Gaza.

During Michigan Democratic primary contest in February, more dan 100,000 voters chose di “uncommitted” option on dia ballots, part of campaign na activists wey gada becos dem want di US goment to stop dia military aid to Israel.

Notably, Michigan get di kontri largest proportion of Arab-Americans – demography dia support for Biden dey threatened. But Harris don use harder tone on Israel, and some Gaza protesters tell di BBC say dem hope say she go dey more sympathetic to dia cause.

Trump don highlight di state significance for im potential path to victory. Commenting on events in di Middle East, e don call on Israel to finish im campaign ova Hamas in Gaza, but “get ova am fast”.

A woman holds up a sign reading "abandon Biden"

Getty Images
Di president don face backlash in Michigan ova im policies in di Middle East

Nevada

Di Silver State don vote Democrat for di last several elections, but signs dey as for possible turnaround for di Republicans.

Recent numbers wey poll-tracking firm 538 publish indicate say polls once show Trump dey enjoy wide lead ova Biden, but dat advantage don reduce since Harris become di top of di ticket. Democrats get hope say candidate wit greater appeal to younger and more diverse voters go close di gap.

Both candidates dey contest to win di state sizeable Latino population.

Despite di fact say di US economy don shown strong growth and jobs creation since Biden take di presidency, di post-Covid recovery don dey slower for Nevada dan oda places.

At 5.1%, di state get di highest unemployment rate in di kontri, afta California and di District of Columbia, according to di latest US goment statistics.

If Trump enta to power again, e don vow return to lower taxes across di board, and fewer regulations.

A woman wears a hat and a face mask that reads "Biden Harris"

Getty Images
Nevada vote Democrat in di last election, but dia post-Covid recovery don dey slower dan elsewia

North Carolina

Poll appear to dey tightened in di Tar Heel State afta Harris take her place at di top of di Democratic ticket, and some analysts now call am “toss-up”.

Dat fit don reflect in Trump choice to go dia for im first outdoor rally since di attempt on im life for July.

“Dis state na very, very big state to win,” e tell di crowd.

For dia part, di Democrats decide to give platform to di state governor, Roy Cooper, on di final night of dia party convention.

North Carolina get border wit Georgia, and share some of dia top electoral concerns, as well as dos for Arizona, anoda Sun Belt state.

Trump carry North Carolina in 2020 but im do am by just ova 70,000 votes, wey get further lift Democrats hope dat dis “purple” state (one fit vote red or blue) fit be win in dis election year.

Pennsylvania

Donald Trump pumps his fist afta being grazed in the ear when a gunman fired shots during his rally

EPA
Na during rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, Trump survived attempt on im life in July

Both sides don dey campaign seriously in di Keystone state, wia Donald Trump survive di assassination attempt.

Di state prove to dey importent in di 2020 election, backing Biden. E get deep emotional connection to di working-class city of Scranton, wia e bin grow up.

Di economy na top issue here, as well as many oda places. Inflation dey high across di kontri under di Biden administration, bifor gradually reducing.

Pennsylvanians dey far from unique among Americans for feeling cost-of-living pressures as result of inflation. But di price of groceries don rise faster in dia state dan in any oda, according to market intelligence provider Datasembly.

Di BBC don previously report on how pipo dey struggle to cope in Erie – bellwether kontri for di rest of Pennsylvania, wia as many as one in eight pipo dey considered “food insecure”.

High inflation fit hurt Ms Harris across di US as polling suggest say e go give voters unfavourable view of di economy.

Trump don try to attack her by pinning her to di Biden economy.

Wisconsin

Donald and Melania Trump, and JD and Usha Vance

EPA
Di Republicans chose Milwaukee to host dia 2024 convention

Di Badger State also pick di winning presidential candidate in both 2016 and 2020, by margin of little more dan 20,000 votes each time.

Pundits suggest say na marginal states like dis one wia di third-party candidates fit make against di policies of di big two candidates.

Polling don indicate say sizeable show of support for independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr fit harm di vote tallies for Ms Harris or Trump.

Democrats don dey fight to remove Green Party candidate Jill Stein from di ballot, saying di party no comply wit state election laws, and dem don also file elections complaint against Cornel West, left-leaning academic.

Trump described di state as “really important… if we win Wisconsin, we win di whole thing”. Dem hold di summer Republican National Convention for Milwaukee.

Harris rallying for dat same city wen her party formally nominate her as di Democratic presidential candidate, appearing via live feed.

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz stand in front of crowd in Milwaukee

Reuters
Kamala Harris dey for Milwaukee wen she receive her party formal nomination
Red and blue divider graphic

BBC

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