Di 2023 Africa Cup of Nations (Afcon) go start on Saturday wit hosts Ivory Coast to take on Guinea-Bissau.
Sadio Mane Senegal go into di tournament – branded officially as di 2023 finals even though dem dem play for 2024 – as reigning champions. Wetin be dia chances to win am again?
BBC Sport don work wit Opta, external to analyse di numbers and look who fit dey crowned champions of Africa.
Holders Senegal, World Cup surprise Morocco or free-scoring Nigeria – who go win?
Wit use of Opta artificial intelligence prediction model, holders Senegal don emerge as di narrow favourites to lift di trophy dis time around.
Dem go become di fourth team to win Afcon for one row and di first since Egypt bin win three for one row between 2006 and 2010.
None of di past six defending champions do go pass di competition last 16.
To achieve one more well-rounded picture of who go win di model estimate di probability of each match outcome – win, draw or loss – use betting market odds and Opta team rankings.
Di odds and rankings base on historical and recent team performances. Di model den consider opponent strength and di difficulty of dia path to di final – use match outcome probabilities, di composition of di groups and potential knockout stage match-ups.
Senegal most likely be winners according to di model, wit one 12.8% chance, just ahead of hosts Ivory Coast (12.1%), wey dey attempt to win di trophy for di third time, afta 1992 and 2015. Di last host nation to lift di trophy na Egypt for 2006 – wit just two-third place finishes (Ghana for 2008 and Cameroon for 2021) di best result among di past nine kontris to host or co-host di competition.
Morocco (11.1%) gbab di third-best chance to win by di predictor model. Dem dey seek dia second Afcon title, dem bin win am for 1976, but dey neva go pass di quarter-finals for dia past seven Afcon appearances, since dem lose di 2004 final 2-1 to Tunisia.
Algeria (9.7%) na di fourth-most likely winners, wit Egypt fifth (8.5%). For Algeria, di chances of victory dey boosted potentially by one easier group dan some of di oda top contenders, dis give dem di highest probability to reach di last 16 (91.5%).
Egypt fit be di record seven-time Afcon champions – avenge di disappointment wey dem bin suffer to lose di 2021 final to Senegal on penalties? If so, e go be dia first title since 2010.
Mohamed Salah na just teenager back den – afta dem suffer defeat di final both 2017, e go dey desperate to win im first Africa Cup of Nations. Egypt get one 16% chance of at least reach anoda final dis year.
To round off di top seven teams for Opta predictor model be three-time Afcon winners Nigeria (1980, 1994 and 2013) and five-time champions Cameroon (1984, 1988, 2000, 2002 and 2017). Nigeria get 8.1% chance to lift di trophy, Cameroon 7.5%.
Both kontries na heavyweights of African football, and any oda player. Di Super Eagles score 22 overall – seven more dan any oda side get potent goal scorers. Victor Osimhen, di 2023 African Footballer of di Year, score 10 goals to qualify for Nigeria, at least five more dan any oda player. Di Super Eagles score 22 overall – seven more dan any oda side.
Vincent Aboubakar, Cameroon captain, go aim to repeat im feats for Afcon 2021, wen e bin score eight goals to win di Golden Boot. Only Zaire Ndaye Mulamba, wit nine goals for 1974, neva ever score more for Cup of Nations finals.
We go get anoda first-time winner – as Senegal dey for 2021? If so, Mali (3.7%) show to get di best chance. Blessed wit 12 players currently dey play Europe big five leagues, di Eagles get 8.7% chance to reach dia second Afcon final, as dem be runners-up to Congo for 1972.
Alas, wit just 5.4% to separate di top seven teams’ win di chances, Afcon 2023 set up to be one open and exciting competition. Make we hope say e provide worthy winners for 11 February.
