Di international price of crude oil don increase as di conflict between Israel and Iran dey continue.
For Nigeria wey dey rely almost entirely on money from di export of crude oil, dis suppose be good news bicos e mean say di kontri go dey get more moni.
Afta Iran shoot almost 200 missiles into Israel last Monday, September 30, 2024, di price of Brent crude oil don rise by more dan 10% to around $79 a barrel.
Iran na di seventh largest producer of crude oil for di world.
Bonny light, wey be di kind of crude oil wey Nigeria dey produce dey around $78 now, from $73 e bin dey seven days ago.
Wetin dis rising oil prices mean for Nigeria economy, how long e go continue like dis, and shey e go get any effect for di price of petroleum products for Nigeria?
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More forex for Nigeria?
Dr Abdulsalam Muhammad Kani wey be sabi pesin for economy matter tell BBC Pidgin say Nigeria fit benefit from dis recent development as e bin happen some years ago.
For di 2024 budget, di federal goment bin put di benchmark of crude oil at $78 per barrel so e mean say di kontri don dey hit di benchmark.
If dem also hit dia estimated crude oil production per day, e go reduce dia budget deficit and mean say enough moni go dey for goment to do wetin dem bin plan for di year.
“With proper planning, Nigeria economy go stabilise small if di situation continue like dis bicos goment fit see moni to take work and even dey service di debt wey dem dey owe,” Kani tok.
“Also, since e mean say Nigeria go dey get extra dollars from crude oil sales, di pressure for forex go reduce wey mean say dollar fit drop small against di Naira.
“As you know say almost everyting for Nigeria na import we dey import am and we must use dollar to bring am in di kontri, so di more dollars we make, di beta,” e tok.
Oga Kani add say if di crisis continue for Middle East, e go good and better for Nigeria economy becos crude oil fit high pass $100 per barrel for di international market.
However, energy expert Engr Sani Yabagi, say true-true oil producing kontris dey benefit from increase for crude oil prices, “but Nigeria no too dey enjoy di benefits sake of two things: corruption and importation of refined products”.
Oga Yabagi explain say plenty of di crude oil wey Nigeria dey produce dey loss sake of crude oil theft. “So di moni wey Nigeria suppose dey make as a kontri dey go to oil tiff, pipo dem wey most of dem na highly placed individuals,” e tok.
“We get high level of crude oil theft and high level of corruption for di oil and gas sector.
According to a report by di Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) in September 2024, “a total of 188 incidents of oil theft bin occur for different locations across di Nigeria Delta inside one week – from August 24 to 30, 2024.
“Di oda reason be say we no dey refine our own crude, rather we dey export crude and dey import refined products. So di revenue wey we suppose make from selling crude at high price, we go still spend am to import finished products,” Oga Yabagi tok.
“Na only recently we start to dey refine crude for Nigeria as di Dangote Refinery start, but dat one na private business, so di impact on Nigeria revenue dey small.”
Crude oil sale in Naira go help?
Last week, di federal goment say dem don start to dey sell crude oil to Dangote and oda local refineries for naira and no more for dollars.
Di Federal Ministry of Finance bin post for dia X handle on Saturday tok say di deal start since October 1.
But Engr Yabagi believe say dis deal fit get small effect to reduce di pressure of foreign exchange against di naira, “but e no go bring down di price of petrol and oda petroleum products”.
“Unless di Nigeria goment go dey sell crude to di Dangote refinery at some discount from wetin di price be for di international market, if not, e no go dey much,” Yabagi tok.
“Remember say Dangote still dey buy crude from oda kontris bicos NNPC no dey able to supply all dia crude stock.”
Yabagi tok say if di crisis for di middle east continue, energy costs around di world go increase, and di Nigeria economy fit suffer more instead of benefit “bicos of corruption and fuel imports”.
E also re-echo wetin oda sabi pipo for di petroleum sector bin don tell BBC Pidgin on top dis petrol matter for Nigeria, and dat be say, “Dangote refinery fit solve di problem of petrol scarcity for Nigeria but e no go make am cheaper”.
As for weda rising crude price go beta for Nigeria economy, oga Yabagi say di impact go dey “very minimal”.
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