Russia don launch ogbonge attack on Ukraine, wey be European democracy of 44 million pipo, and dia forces dey just outside of di capital, Kyiv.
For months, President Vladimir Putin deny say e go invade im neighbour, but den e don tear to pieces one peace deal, as e send forces across borders inside Ukraine north, east and south.
As di number of di dead dey climb, e dey face accuse say e don scata di peace for Europe. Wetin go happun next fit cause kasala wit di continent entire security structure.
But wetin really be di palava and why Putin dey para?
- Russia don launch military operation inside Ukraine
- See sanctions wey dem don sama Russia and odas di world dey reason sake of Ukraine palava
Why Russian troops attack?
For one early mor-mor TV address on 24 February, President Putin declare say Russia no fit feel “safe, develop and exist” because of wetin e say na constant threat from modern Ukraine.
Immediately, dem attack airports and military headquarters, den tanks and troops roll in from Russia, Crimea wey Russia bin collect and Russia ally Belarus. Now, warplanes don bomb major cities, and Russian forces don seize control of di key southern port city Kherson.
Russia don refuse to use si word war or even invasion; many of Putin justification for wetin dey happun na lie and no get head.
E claim say im goal na to protect pipo wey dey subjected to bullying and genocide and di aim na for di “demilitarisation and de-Nazification” of Ukraine. No genocide don happun for Ukraine: Ukraine na vibrant democracy, wey dia leader na president wey be Jewish.
“How I fit be Nazi?” Volodymyr Zelensky, wey liken Russia attack to Nazi Germany invasion in World War Two tok. Ukraine chief rabbi and di Auschwitz Memorial don also reject Russia insult.
President Putin don frequently accuse say extremists don take over Ukraine, ever since dem comot pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, for 2014 afta months of protests against im rule.
Russia den retaliate by seizing di southern region of Crimea and causing one rebellion for di east, dem back separatists wey don fight Ukrainian forces inside war wey don claim 14,000 lives.
Late in 2021, Russia begin dey deploy big numbers of troops close to Ukraine borders, but dem continue to deny say dem go attack. Den Mr Putin bone one 2015 peace deal for di east and recognise areas wey dey under rebel control as independent.
Russia don for long time resist Ukraine move towards di European Union and di West defensive military alliance, Nato. As e announce Russia invasion, e accuse Nato of threatening “our historic future as a nation”.
How far Russia go go?
Now e don clear say Russia dey ginger to overthrow Ukraine democratically elected goment. Im aim na say make Ukraine dey freed from oppression and “cleansed of di Nazis”.
President Zelensky say dem don warn am “di enemy don mark me as target number one; my family na target number two”.
Dis lie-lie tok of say fascists seize Ukraine for 2014 na sometin wey bin don dey come up ontop di Kremlin-controlled TV. Mr Putin don speak of bringing di mata to court before of “those wey committed plenti bloody crimes against civilians”.
Wetin Russia plans dey for Ukraine no clear, but dem dey face ogbonge resistance from a population wey no gbadun di mata but e don show say e dey prepared to bomb civilian areas to fulfil im goals.
For January, UK accuse Moscow of planning to install a pro-Moscow puppet to lead Ukraine goment – a claim wey Russia bin reject at di time as nonsense. One unconfamed intelligence report suggest say Russia aim na to divide di kontri in two.
No immediate threat dey to Russia Baltic neighbours, but Nato don boost dia defence just in case.
Ahead of di invasion, Russia public focus bin always dey on di areas wey Russian-backed rebels hold for di east. But dat one change wen President Putin recognise dia independence.
E no only make am clear say e no longer dey part of Ukraine, e reveal say e dey dia back to claim far more Ukrainian territory. Di self-styled pipos republics cover little more dan a third of di regions of Donetsk of Luhansk and di rebels want di rest, too.
Wetin be Putin demands?
No be only say e don demand say make Ukraine no ever join Nato but e don say make di alliance turn di clock back to 1997 and reverse dia eastward expansion.
Mr Putin don complain say Russia get “nowhere further to retreat to – shey dem tink say we go just fold our hand and sit by?”
E want make Nato remove dia forces and military infrastructure from member states wey join di alliance from 1997 and not to deploy “strike weapons near Russia borders”. E mean Central Europe, Eastern Europe and di Baltics.
But dis wan go beyond Nato. In di words of Germany chancellor, Russia leader “want to take over Europe according to im world view”.
But last year, President Putin write one long piece wey describe Russians and Ukrainians as “one nation”, and now e don claim say modern Ukraine dey entirely created by communist Russia. E see di collapse of di Soviet Union for December 1991 as di “disintegration of historical Russia”.
E don claim say modern Ukraine dey entirely created by communist Russia and na now puppet state, wey dey controlled by di West. Na im pressure on Ukraine not to sign an association treaty with di EU in 2013 na im spark di protests wey comot di pro-Kremlin president.
For President Putin eyes, di West promise back for 1990 say Nato no go expand “not an inch to di east”, but dem do so anyway.
Dat na before di collapse of di Soviet Union, however, so di promise wey dem make to di den Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev only refer to East Germany for di context of a reunified Germany. Mr Gorbachev say later “di topic of Nato expansion na sometin wey dem never discuss” at di time.
How dangerous dis invasion dey for Europe?
Dis na fearful times for di pipo of Ukraine as bombs rain down on cities and civilians rush go hide for bomb shelters of di Cold-War era.
Thousands don die already inside wetin German Chancellor Olaf Scholz don call “Putin war” – civilians as well as sojas. Russia attack don cause hundreds of thousands of pipo to run across Ukraine borders. Poland, Hungary, Romania, Moldova and Slovakia see rush of pipo wey dey pour in, while EU suggest say more dan seven million pipo fit dey displaced.
Russia leader don even put im nuclear forces on high alert, days afta e threaten di West with “consequences di like of wetin you never see before” if dem stand for im way.
Di rest of di continent dey also watch in horror, as dem dey witness a major power as e dey invade a European neighbour for di first time in decades.
For Europe leaders, dis invasion don bring some of di darkest hours since di World War Two.
France Emmanuel Macron, say na turning point for Europe history. E recall di Cold War days of di Soviet Union, Volodymyr Zelensky speak of Ukraine move to avoid a new iron curtain wey go close Russia from di civilised world. While Germany Olaf Scholz don warn say Putin want Russian empire.
For the families of both armed forces, dis na anxious days. Ukrainians don already suffer eight-year war with Russian agents. Di military don call up all reservists between di age of 18 to 60 years old.
Dis no be war wey Russia population dey prepared for, either, as di invasion na one wey dey rubber-stamped by di largely unrepresentative upper house of parliament. Thousands of anti-war protesters don dey detained in a state wey di main opposition leader already dey behind bars. Dem don also remove Independent Russian broadcasters Dozhd and Ekho Moskvy from air.
But Ukraine too don build up im armed forces in recent years and Russia no go get am easy. Di military don call up all reservists between di age of 18-60.
Russia leader get oda options too: maybe a no-fly zone or blockade of Ukrainian ports, or to move nuclear weapons to neighbouring Belarus.
E fit also launch cyber-attacks. Ukrainian goment websites go down in January and two of Ukraine biggest banks dey hit for mid-February.
Wetin di West fit do?
Nato defensive alliance don make am clear say dem no get plans to send combat troops to Ukraine itself. But member kontries don provide weapons and field hospitals and di EU, for di first time in im history, wan buy and send arms and oda equipment.
Nato don deploy several thousand troops go di Baltic states and Poland and for di first time dey activate part of im much bigger fast reaction force. Nato no go tok wia but some fit go to Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia.
At di same time, di West dey target Russia economy, financial institutions and individuals:
- Di EU, US, UK, Japan and Canada dey cut off key Russian banks from di international Swift payment network, wey dey allow di smooth and fast transfer of money across borders
- Di EU, UK and Canada don shut off dia airspace to Russian airlines.
- Di US, EU and UK don impose personal sanctions on President Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, while EU dey also target 351 Russian lawmakers.
- Germany don stop approval on Russia Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, one major investment by both Russia and European companies
- Dem dey ban across EU Russia state-run media Sputnik and Russia Today, wey pipo see say dem be Kremlin mouthpiece.
- Di Russian city of St Petersburg no go longer dey able to host dis year Champions League final and di Russian Grand Prix no go take place for Sochi.
- Di International Paralympic Committee (IPC) don ban Russian and Belarusian athletes from competing, and don expel dem from di Games in Beijing.
Wetin Nato don tok?
Nato na defensive alliance with open-door policy to new members, and im 30 member states dey stand ground say dat one no go change.
Ukraine president don call for, “timeframes wey dey workable” to join Nato, but prospect say e go happun no dey for a long time, as Germany chancellor don make am clear.
Di idea say any current Nato kontri go give up im membership na sometin wey no make sense.
Diplomatic way out dey?
E no look like so at di moment, even if di two sides bin don do tok-tok on di border with Belarus.
Russia insist say make Kyiv lay down im arms and demilitarises, and dat wan no go happun.
Beyond di war, any eventual deal go need to cover di status of eastern Ukraine as well as arms control with di West.
America don offer to start toks on limiting short- and medium-range missiles, as well as on a new treaty on intercontinental missiles. Russia want make dem bar all US nuclear arms from beyond dia national territories.
Russia bin dey positive towards a proposed “transparency mechanism” of mutual checks on missile bases – two for Russia, and two for Romania and Poland.
