Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? Diplomats tok on who go be next to occupy di White House

French President Emmanuel Macron tok during di 79th Session of di United Nations General Assembly at di United Nations headquarters in New York City on 25 September 2024

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Di annual United Nations General Assembly week dey always dey fast.

Dem fit call am di Super Bowl of diplomacy, but dis year perhaps more appropriate analogy na marathon.

Since World War Two so many global conflicts don dey pile up, wit Lebanon on di brink just as leaders arrive in New York City.

Di current state of uncertainty, di coming US election dey everybody mind.

One senior Western diplomat tell me no-one expect tins to move on the Israel-Gaza war until afta dem declare winner in di White House race.

“We understand say di current administration dey under pressure make dem no go take any decisions wey fit affect di election,” e tok.

“But we hope say afta di election di current administration go use di interim period to make some decision wey go lead to improving di situation in Gaza.”

But in conversation wit dozen officials from different continents at di UN headquarters in Manhattan, fotos emerged of global community fatigued by crisis and resigned to working wit whoever be di next occupant of di White House.

Dem grant all of dem anonymity to share dia honest views.

“I no see any difference betwin di two candidates, just look around di whole world from one end to di oda, we dey in total chaos,” one ambassador from one South Asian nation tell me.

US President Joe Biden (C), standing next to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (L) and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (R), gada for group foto during event wit world leaders launching Joint Declaration of Support for Ukrainian Recovery and Reconstruction on di sidelines of the 79th Session of di United Nations General Assembly in New York on September 25, 2024

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World leaders on di sidelines of di UN General Assembly dis week

Na sentiment dat reflect perhaps disillusionment wit US leadership, but also di view by many in di global south dat while di rhetoric changes, America broad foreign policies really no dey quicky from one administration to di next.

“E dey very easy to bash and make alarm about wetin fit happun,” one senior Arab representative tell me.

E tok say dis while im tink former President Donald Trump dey unpredictable compared to Vice-President Kamala Harris, di idea say e go rip up multilateralism exaggerated becos e no happun bifor.

“Wetin really dey undermining multilateralism na actions and conflicts wey dey happun in many part of di world, and you no fit put dat on one kontri or on one administration,” e tok.

Here at di UN complex, one longtime official of di organisation tell me say no fear about di US election.

“We don get enough fear spread around wetin dey go on today to worry about wetin gio happun for November,” di official tok.

Dis source add say di UN survive di Trump administration in way ony some pipo fit predict.

“Di volume fit dey loud, but dem no dey all dat different from previous Republicans,” di official tok.

If dem get second term, di official tell me dia sense be say Trump go focuse on domestic issues and “settling scores internally” dat foreign policy fit no be di focus in di beginning.

Speaking to di BBC, Kenyan President William Ruto no sound worried.

“I dey very confident say di bones of friendship between Kenya and di US transcend individuals in office,” e tok. “E go transcend me as president or whoever is elected in di US.”

William Ruto: Kenyan president on post-election relations wit US
The British Broadcasting Corporation

For many Europeans, however, fear dey about Trump second administration and wetin some see as transactional approach to foreign relations.

One European diplomat tell me say wit di Security Council incapable of managing conflicts, fear dey say emboldened and potentially more radical Trump administration go add to di dysfunction and encourage more movement in Europe toward di ultra-right.

“I tink e go be relief for at least di majority of Europeans if Harris come into office,” e tok.

Nevertheless, anoda senior European diplomat tok say while Harris winning go give dem sense of continuity, dem also get working relationship wit Trump for four years and feel more prepared dan in 2016.

Coinciding wit di UN high level debate na Climate Week in New York City. Caribbean leaders speak from di green and gold General Assembly Hall, and to rooms full of businessmen and politicians at side events to warn dem say di the world dey dangerously behind on im climate commitments, putting dia islands at risk.

One minister from di region tell me say climate na di main area wia di US candidates differences worry dem. “In terms of real commitment from di US goment and for di US goment to provide leadership,” di minister say “definitely Democrats”.

Many still remember Trump pulling out of di Paris Climate Accord, while Joe Biden later rejoined.

Di Prime Minister of di Bahamas, Philip Davis, say political change na challenge to progress ova di last 26 years. E tok say e don dey call for some kind of mechanism dat protect change in political leadership from di beginning or reversing progress.

Election day on 5 November fit feel faraway to diplomats wey don dey confronted wit more challenges dan solutions here dis past week.

But di time dey fast approaching wen dem go begin count votes in di US, and wit anoda new face in di White House.

Anoda European minister, running to an event, simply say to me: “My hope be say e no get too weird.”

Additional reporting by Cai Pigliucci.

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