Israel latest strikes for Lebanon dey prepare for possible entry of troops, according to one army chief.
Herzi Halevi tell troops say, “you hear di jets for sky, we don dey strike all day. Na both to prepare for di fact say e fit enta to kontinu to downgrade Hezbollah”.
Dis recent escalation for di kasala between Israel and Lebanon dey remind pipo of di 2006 war wia dem bin first do ogbonge air bombing bifor Israeli ground operations start for Lebanese territory.
Afta di 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks for Israel, militant groups in Hezbollah increase dia attacks for Israel from southern Lebanon, and both sides don dey level up attacks for like one year now.
So if Israel decide say dem go enta Lebanon, how di invasion go look and Israel go wan stay in control di territory.
Israel dey prepare to attack Lebanon on land
Israel Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, don promise more dan once say e go return di ova 60,000 pipo wey don run comot dia houses dem for northern Israel sake of di fight-fight wit Hezbollah.
On Wednesday 25 September e clear say Isreal wan enta Lebanon, somehow to quench di threat of Hezbollah for those pipo.
Herzi Halevi tell troops say, “today we go kontinu, we no go stop; we go kontinu dey strike and hit dem evriwia. Di goal dey clear to safely return di residents of di north.”
E say di military dey “prepare di process of maneuver wey mean say your military boots, your maneuvering boots go enta enemy territory, enta di villages wey Hezzbollah do prepare as large military outposts”.
Bifor all dis, on Monday 23 September, di recent tension enta gear one as more dan 550 pipo die afta ogbonge air strikes for wetin Israel say na Hezbollah targets for Lebanon.
Di health authority say plenti pipo wey die na civilians, women, pikin and medics dem.
Even though di air strikes still dey happun, analysts dey predict say Israel go soon send ground forces enta Lebanon.
Wetin Israeli action for Lebanon fit look like?
For Lebanon past wars, Israel don follow plenti methods for dia ground operations.
To understand dis possible scenarios, e dey important to look back at Israel former invasions for Lebanon for 1982 and 2006.
- Di 1982 war: a full scale ground invasion
For 1982, Israeli forces enta Lebanon to try to stop di Palestinian cross-border raids and shooting, to end Syrian presence and for Lebanon and “assist to form more friendly goment for Lebanon wey go fit sign treaty wit Israel”- according to di Israeli diplomatic missions website.
Dat time di Palestinians wey Yasser Arafat and im Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) dey lead, no gree recognize Israel and Israel no support Palestinian state.
Di invasion bin big gan as e get thousand of sojas and hundreds of tanks and armoured motor dem. Dem also combine am wit ogbonge air, naval and artillery bombing.
Di Israelis enta from idifferent side and in one week don land outside di Lebanese capital, Beirut wia dey lay seige to di city.
How di world take eye look di 1982 invasion?
Di PLO leader Yasser Arafat and like 2,000 Syrian troops wey support am against Israel bin dey forced to comot Lebanon.
BBC tori pesin dat time write say, “e no sure for oga Arafat wey dey go Greece by ship say e go find anoda Arab goment wey go gree take am afta di kasala wey burst bicos of im stay for Lebanon.”
But around di world dem condemn Israel bicos for September 1982, hundreds of Palestinians for Beirut bin dey killed by Christian militias as Israeli troops no do anytin.
Wetin dem go later call di Sabra and Shatila massacre, tori dat time be say na revenge sake of di killing of President-elect Bashir Genayel four days bifor.
- 2006 war: Israel limited ground incursion into Lebanon
Di ground incursion for 2006 bin dey limited and slow wen you compare am to di 1982 one and bin dey limited to towns and dia surroundings wey be just few kilometres inside Lebanon.
Israeli political analyst Yoav Stern tell BBC for 23 September say, e bin no tok say di next ground incursion go resemble wetin happun for 1982 but e go be slow and calculated.
E bin suggest say Israel go occupy towns for southern Lebanon one by one, instead just to enta wit full scale invasion. E go resemble wetin happun for 2006 but go enta Lebanon and go reach di Litani river. Di Litani river don dey important since to di two sides wey wan get control of important areas for Lebanon.
Stern tok im prediction based on di long time presence of Hezbollah for di towns of southern Lebanon wey no gree Israel to occupy di towns and make dem comot sharp-sharp.
Military analyst and former general Hisham Jaber argue say invasion wey Israel go use enta southern Lebanon no go allow di troops stay dia log.
E tok say, “Israel no wetin dia eye see wen dem try hold ground for di invasion for 2006.”
E add say any likely invasion now go happun in a very different way.
Jaber tink say Israeli ground operations for Lebanon go only use cross border raids wit limited scope. E include limited areas and any raid wey Israel go run no go pass one day.
Jaber expect say Israel no go too reason ground invasions and kontinu to increase air strikes a, wit assassinations and cyber-security operations.
Wia di invasion fit dey?
Jaber expect say Israeli ground operations go dey restricted to “very limited areas in Lebanese border towns”, but e no rule out say Israel fit do wetin resemble “commando operations” for oda Lebanese areas.
But Stern expect say di scope of di potential ground operations go include southern Lebanon wey be “dia area between di Lebanese-Israeli border and di Litani river”.
E no rule out say Israel fit dey forced to enta areas wey dey north of di Litani and dem comot for tactical reasons or say dem go do landings behind di lines. E suggest say Israel fit enta areas wey dey deep inside Lebanon to create negotiating advantage for future.
Di incursion for di 1982 war focus on three main areas. Two of dem start from one area wey dem dey call di Galilee Finger enta Bekaa Valley for eastern Lebanon and di central mountain areas, and di third axis na along di coastal road for di south to Beirut.
Di invasion also include naval landing of infantry sojas and armoured moto dem for di north of di southern city of Sidon.
Wetin dat invasion go achieve?
Di declared goal for di 1982 war and dia ground operations na to comot towns for northern Israel from di range of di rockets and artillery of di Palestinian fighters for southern Lebanon, wey dem do by say dem bin push dem back 40km from di Lebanese-Israeli border.
Israel tok say aanoda reason na to destroy PLO infrastructure wey include dia headquarters for Beirut and to push Syrian forces comot Lebanon.
Di Israeli attack for 1982 no stop for southern Lebanon but enta large areas for di Bekaa Valley di Chouf Mountains and Beirut.
Hisham Jaber tink say di narrow-range ground penetrations – or limited incursions – fit get small overall military effect as time go on.
But Stern believe say Israel go first try push Hezbollah fighters back to di north of di Litani river wit any attacks for southern Lebanon for two main reason wey be:
“To stop di firing of short-range rockets enta Israeli towns and to prevent any attack wey resemble di 7 October attack for northern Israel to happun again.”
