Russia Ukraine tensions: Diplomacy fit prevent Russo-Ukrainian War?

Russia Ukraine tensions: Diplomacy fit prevent Russo-Ukrainian War?

Reuters
Territorial defence reservists across Ukraine don dey preapre for a possible Russian invasion

Di idea of a Russo-Ukrainian War dey hard to imagine.

If Russia attack Ukraine, thousands fit die. Many pipo fit run.

Di economic cost go dey severe and humanitarian cost go dey bad.

Yet Russia don continue to build up dia forces around Ukraine.

And di West don continue to threaten serious consequences if dem step one foot over di border.

Any diplomatic way out dey, any solution to dis kasala wey go dey peaceful and durable dey on ground?

Diplomats bin tok of one way wey all sides fit comot di road to war. But to find such path no dey easy.

Any compromise go come at a price. So di tori wey you wan read here so na some potential routes wey no involve military might wey go lead to bloody outcome.

West fit convince President Putin to back down

Under dis scenario, Western powers go effectively discourage any invasion by convincing Russian President Vladimir Putin say di costs go outweigh di benefits.

Dem go beg Putin say di human casualties, di economic sanctions and di diplomatic blowback go dey so great.

And e go dey worst for di Russian leader even if e make military gains on di battlefield.

E go need fear say di West fit support military insurgency for Ukraine, wey go pull am down in a costly war for years.

Oga Putin go need believe say dis cost fit reduce im domestic support and threaten im leadership.

Under dis narrative, di West go also allow Mr Putin claim diplomatic victory.

Dis go portray am as a peaceful protagonist wey dey reluctant to respond militarily to Nato provocations.

Mr Putin fit claim say im finally get di West attention and dia leaders dey address wetin dem call im “legitimate security concerns”.

Russia go don remind di world of im great power and deepened im presence for Belarus.

Di wahala wit dis narrative na say e go dey easy to argue say Mr Putin don fail.

Putin actions for don unite di West; lead Nato to move forces closer to Russia borders; and encourage Sweden and Finland to consider joining Nato.

Di problem be say if Mr Putin wish to control Ukraine and undermine Nato, few reasons na im dey on why e go wan back down now.

Nato and Russia fit agree to a new security deal

Western powers don make am clear say dem no go compromise on core principles like di sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.

Dat na Ukraine right to seek membership of Nato; wey must get “open door” to any kontri wey wish to join.

But di US and Nato don accept say dem fit find common ground on wider European security issues.

Dis fit include revival of arms control agreements wey don fail to reduce di numbers of missiles on both sides.

E also don fail to increase confidence to build measures between Russian and Nato forces; greater transparency over military exercises.

Plus di location of missiles; and co-operation on anti-satellite weapon testing.

Russia don already make am clear say all of dis issues no go dey enough to satisfy im core concern wey be say to allow Ukraine join Nato go affect Russian security.

Russia Ukraine tensions: Diplomacy fit prevent Russo-Ukrainian War?

BBC
Map wey dey show Russian troops near Ukraine, Feb 2022

But if, say, Nato missile deployments dey reduced, dat one fit address at least some Russian concerns.

In some ways, Putin don already make gains here: Europe dey newly engaged for security dialogue on Russia terms.

Ukraine and Russia fit revive di Minsk agreements

E get some deals wey Russia and Ukraine get togeda for 2014 and 2015 for di Belarusian capital, Minsk.

Dis deal bin dey designed to end di war between government forces and Russian-backed rebels for eastern Ukraine.

Di deal obviously fail – and di fighting continue.

But e at least set out a path towards a ceasefire and a political settlement wey dey based on a more federal constitution.

Western politicians don suggest say reviving di Minsk accords fit be solution to dis crisis now.

French President Emmanuel Macron say Minsk na “di only path wey dey allow us to build peace”.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace tell BBC Today Programme say restoring Minsk fit be “a strong way forward to de-escalate”.

Di problem na say di provisions of di agreement dey complex and unclear.

Di Kremlin say dia demands na make Ukraine hold local elections to empower pro-Russian politicians.

Kyiv want Moscow to first disarm and remove Russian fighters.

Di biggest disagreement na over how much autonomy Minsk go give to breakaway enclaves for di Donbas.

Kyiv say modest self-government.

Moscow disagree and tok say Donetsk and Luhansk suppose get mouth on top Ukraine foreign policy and then veto for Nato membership.

And dat na di big fear for Kyiv: say reviving Minsk na shortcut for ruling out Ukraine ever joining Nato wey Nato members no go tok am directly.

So agreement and popular support for Ukraine no sure.

Ukraine fit become neutral, like Finland

Dem fit beg Ukraine to adopt some kain neutrality?

Reports bin dey ground – some wey don dey denied – say French officials suggest say Ukraine fit take Finland as model.

Finland adopt formal neutrality during di Cold War.

Na independent, sovereign and democratic state. E remain – and remains – outside Nato.

Dis fit dey attractive to Kyiv? E go avoid military outcome.

E fit for theory satisfy oga Putin desire make Ukraine no ever join Nato.

And di alliance no go need compromise on dia “open door” policy: Ukraine go don make im sovereign choice not to join.

But Ukraine go wan support dis?

Dem no go support am because neutrality go effectively leave Ukraine open to Russian influence.

E go dey hard to enforce neutrality, and Russia go wan abide by dia terms?

Neutrality go be a major concession for Kyiv wey go need to abandon dia Euro-Atlantic aspirations.

Neutrality fit also make membership of di European Union dey very far.

Di current Russia Ukraine stand-off fit become di status quo

E fit dey possible make di current confrontation continue for sometime – but reduce in intensity ova time?

Russia fit slowly pull dia sojas go back barracks and declare dia exercise finished.

But at di same time a lot of military equipment go dey left behind, just in case.

Moscow fit continue to dey support rebel forces for di Donbas.

And all di while, Ukraine politics and economy go continue to dey weakened by constant threat from Russia.

In turn, di West go maintain a strengthened Nato presence for Eastern Europe.

Dia politicians and diplomats go continue to engage small-small wit Russian counterparts, dem go continue to dey tok – but di progress go dey slow.

Ukraine go struggle on. But at least full-scale war no go dey.

And slowly di confrontation go disappear from di headlines and re-join di long list of frozen conflicts wey disappear from public attention.

None of these options dey easy or possible. All of dem involve compromise.

Di fear for Kyiv na say Ukraine fit be di kontri wey go need compromise di most.

Di calculation, though, na whether di threat of serious conflict dey real and if so, wetin dem go do to avoid am.

Di one sign of hope right now na say all sides still dey willing to tok even if e no dey yield much result.

And di longer pipo continue to tok, hope dey say, diplomatic door to a solution remains open, even if e just open small.