Ukraine Russia crisis: Moscow possible attack routes

Russian tanks

BBC

Moscow insist say dem no dey plan to invade Ukraine, but US say Russia fit attack “at any time”.

On Tuesday, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson say: “We tink say dem do do big preparation wey dey ready to go.

“Everybody fit see wetin di potential routes dem fit follow in dey.”

Military analysts agree say with up to 190,000 troops near di Ukraine border, Russia get options, if dem decide to strike.

Di Belarus option

If Russia goal na full regime change for Ukraine, attack from di north dey highly possible, according to Michael Kofman, of di US-based CNA research organisation.

Map showing routes from the north

BBC

Russia get 30,000 troops for Belarus for joint military exercise, dem dey equipped with Iskander short-range missiles and some number of rocket launchers, as well as Su-25 ground attack aircraft and Su-35 fighters.

On Sunday, Mr Johnson say e don see intelligence wey suggest say Russia dey plan attack from Belarus.

E say e go be like a Russian advance “coming down from di north, coming down from Belarus, and surrounding Kiev itself”.

Evidence suggest say Russia dey plan “di biggest war in Europe since 1945”, Mr Johnson tok.

To di east, just inside Russian territory, “Russia entire 41st army dey wait for di border”, Mr Kofman tok.

Move on Kyiv from Belarus fit avoid di exclusion zone around di Chernobyl nuclear power plant.

On di Russian side, e fit come from Novye Yurkovichi and Troebortno, according to Seth Jones, of di Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Di route from Crimea

A breakout from Crimea dey “almost certain” if Russia launch invasion, according to Ben Barry, of di International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Ground war fit involve “powerful armoured columns with concentrated artillery support to attempt to advance fast into di depth of Ukraine”, according to Mr Barry.

Russian advance towards Kyiv from Crimea fit corner large numbers of Ukrainian troops wey dey east of di Dnieper river, e tok.

With Russian forces to dia west, east and north, and for Crimea, Ukrainian troops go dey surrounded.

Map showing route from Crimea.

BBC

Russian troops fit try to take Kherson and Odesa wey dey dia west and Melitopol and Mariupol for dia east, dis one fit create a land bridge between Crimea and areas wey dey controlled by Russian separatists.

Satellite image showing helicoptetrs in Crimea.

BBC

If dem make move, e fit also involve naval forces wey currently dey for di Black Sea.

Russian landing ships for di area dey capable of deploying personnel, armoured vehicles and main battle tanks.

To strike from di East

Russian-backed rebels seize big areas of two key regions, Luhansk and Donetsk, for 2014.

Sabi pipo reason say about 15,000 separatists dey Luhansk and Donetsk, wey fit helep Russian to advance.

Ukraine say di number dey higher.

Russia get about 10,000 troops wey dey permanently stationed across di border for di Rostov region, and more don land recently.

Troops dey take part in exercises near Rostov-on-Don

Getty Images
Troops bin don dey take part in exercises near Rostov-on-Don

If Russia decide to attack from di east, e dey possible say troops fit advance towards Crimea, dem fit create a land bridge along Ukraine south-east coast.

Dem fit alos make move on Kharkiv from Belgorod, and on to Kremenchuk.

Map showing route from the east

BBC

Strike from di east fit dey started simply to protect Russian speakers for di rebel-held areas.

Mr Barry point out say even a limited operation dey likely to involve di bombing of air defences and oday key military command infrastructure for oda places for di kontri.

Analysts say e dey possible say any Russian move fit involve different routes at di same time, join wit cyber-attacks, disinformation warfare and missile strikes.

Dem say Russia most limited option fit be for dem to launch significant cyber-attacks on Ukraine, as dem aim to paralyse key infrastructure without say dem take territory.

In di end, Mr Kofman say, di exact details of any attack go depend on Moscow political objectives.

And e never still clear yet.